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Journal|[J]Resources PolicyVolume 74, 2021.
MT矿产资源可利用潜力的混合评价模型
A hybrid assessment model for mineral resource availability potentials
摘要 / Abstract
MT
传统的矿产资源可利用性评价方法总是存在很强的假设和应用局限性。Hubbert模型的物理机制和Hotelling模型的经济机制都只能评价矿产资源可得性的具体维度。因此,我们提出一个混合模型,可以解释矿产资源可获得性从地质因素到金属市场。在这个模型中,矿产资源可得性将由两个指标在一个坐标系中进行评估。一是矿业技术的边际效应,由柯布—道格拉斯生产函数计算得出。另一个是储备和生产的价格弹性比率。同时,应用该模型对我国13种战略矿产进行了评估。其中,未来金、锡、铅的可利用潜力较大,而铁、铝、铜的可利用潜力相对较小。此外,锆、铬、锂、钴、钨、镍是以技术为基础的战略矿产,而钼则是以市场为导向的战略矿产。并且,我们基于实证结果提出了分类管理政策。
原文
Traditional mineral resource availability assessment methods always have strong assumptions and limitations on application. Both the physical mechanism of the Hubbert model and the economic mechanism of the Hotelling model can evaluate only specific dimensions of the availability of mineral resources. Therefore, we propose a hybrid model that could explain mineral resource availability from geological factors to the metal market. In this model, mineral resource availability will be assessed by two indicators in a coordinate system. One is the marginal effect of mining technology, which is calculated by the Cobb-Douglas production function. Another is the price elasticity ratio of reserve and production. Meanwhile, we apply this model to assess 13 kinds of strategic minerals in China. Among them, the availability potential of gold, tin and lead is large in the future, while that of iron, aluminum and copper is relatively small. In addition, zirconium, chromium, lithium, cobalt, tungsten and nickel are technology-based strategic minerals, while molybdenum is a market-oriented strategic mineral. Moreover, we put forward the classified management policy based on empirical results.
关键词 / Keywords
MT
矿产资源可得性; 采矿技术; 地质约束; 价格弹性
核心评价 / Indexed by
SSCI; WAJCI; Scopus; EI; INSPEC;
研究要点 / Highlights
• A hybrid model for mineral resource availability is proposed.;
• Mineral resource availability is divided into two parts: geological process and economic process.;
• According to the model, mineral resources are divided into four categories.;
• 13 kinds of strategic minerals in China are selected as case study.
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